Creating a 3-Year Forecast
By Jeri T. Denniston, Chief Marketing Strategist
Now comes the more challenging part for many entrepreneurs – forecasting. If you’re just getting started and have no history, then everything is a guess. The research you did in the earlier stages - to identify your competition and see what they’re charging, and to describe your primary target audience to understand their wants and needs - will help in this phase.
However, now you need to focus on the numbers, specifically, costs, revenue, and profit. I’ve created an Excel spreadsheet that I’ve shared with many of my clients to help them identify their expenses and potential revenue streams. The advantage of using the template is that many formulas are already created. You just need to fill in the empty cells for each month. Click here to schedule a call if you want a copy of the Excel file.
Start with your costs.
List everything you know about what it will cost to deliver your service or get your product to market, from creation to production to delivery into the hands of your customer.
A service business is more challenging since you are billing for your time. What’s your time worth? How long will it take you to produce the service item for your client whether it’s a training program, a digital design, or an architectural drawing. The end result may be tangible, but the process is all related to time and possibly materials in terms of software, printed documents, blueprints, etc.
On the other hand, if you are producing a physical product, then in addition to the time it takes you and your team to produce the product, you also have raw materials, equipment, and perhaps factory or warehouse space to cover.
If you have a physical location such as a restaurant or a bakery, you have the rental lease, the kitchen build-out expenses, raw materials to produce the food, tables and chairs, décor, signage, and staff salaries, among other things.
Don’t forget to include a salary for yourself as the business owner. If you have no idea what to charge for your time, do some Google searches online to see what the average salary would be for similar work if you were employed full-time by a company. That’s what you should be earning yourself, plus an additional 30-40% to cover benefits.
If you work out of a home office, you need to also include a percentage of your mortgage or rent, utilities, telephone, and internet costs as overhead. You would have to include these expenses if you rented office space somewhere and they should be included in your expenses worksheet to get an accurate picture of your business expenses. You can calculate this by estimating the square footage of your home that is devoted exclusively to business. Ideally, it’s a separate room in the house or apartment. But if it’s a portion of the bedroom or living room or kitchen area, calculate how much of that space is devoted to your “business”. That would include at minimum a desk, computer, and telephone. If you use your mobile phone exclusively, a best practice is to have a separate line dedicated to business and another line for personal use. That keeps your calls separate and makes it easier to track business expenses.
Once you have the estimated square footage dedicated to your business, divide that square footage by the total square footage for the house or apartment. Use that percentage and apply it to all your home expenses – rent, electricity, gas, water, phone, internet. For example, if your business occupies 200 square feet of a 1400 square foot house or apartment, divide 200 by 1400 to get the percentage to apply to your other expenses. In this scenario, it’s 14.39%. You can round up to 14.40% or round down to 14% to err on the side of caution. Multiply every expense by 14% to calculate your utilities, rent, telephone, and internet usage for the business.
Add Your Revenue Streams
Either using Excel or just a piece of paper, write down all the different ways you earn income. These may include products you sell online or in your store or the different services you provide. If you have different price points, list each one separately. This will provide better tracking and forecasting to see which items are generating the most revenue.
You may have more or less revenue in different months which is why it’s good to use Excel to track your expenses and revenue for each month with totals for the year. Once you’ve entered the numbers, you’ll get a picture of how your business is performing each month. Some months you may find you’re operating at a loss. Other months you may see that you’re making a profit. This is valuable information to help you begin to see where you may have upcoming shortfalls so you can plan ahead instead of being caught by surprise, unable to make payroll, or buy some much-needed raw materials without pulling funds out of savings or charging it to your credit card.
Create a 3-year forecast
Once you have the first year income and expenses entered, the next step is to project those for the next two years. This will give you a three-year forecast. You can start using the Excel spreadsheet I mentioned above. The first tab lists start-up expenses and then monthly recurring expenses. The next tab, called Yr 2 forecast, has space to list monthly revenue and expenses for 12 months. The rows in orange have formulas calculated and should be ignored. You just fill in the cells above those rows. This will give you a one-year picture of your business revenue and expenses. The next two tabs are used for Years 2 and 3. You can copy and paste the numbers from Yr 1 into both these tabs to reflect the revenue and expenses for each of those years.
My recommendation would be to assume a 5-10% increase in expenses in years 2 and 3 and to project a similar increase in revenue for those same years. This helps to build a forecast for the next two years. You may have consistent expenses in some areas so don’t increase those. But you may see utilities and telephone expenses increase as your business grows. And you will likely need to increase your marketing and advertising expenses each year to help generate more business traffic and customers. If you use Quickbooks or another accounting software program, you may be able to create a forecast using that program.
Another option, which we make available to our clients, is to use LivePlan. It’s an online business planning platform that has an excellent, user-friendly interface to help you create your list of expenses and revenue streams. Once you’ve input all the numbers and information, it will automatically create a balance sheet, a profit and loss statement, and a cash flow statement.
If you’ve been in business a few years, and are using either Quickbooks online or Xero, you can connect that program directly to LivePlan and pull in your real-time revenue and expenses to then compare against your forecast. This is especially useful to see where you may have increased expenses or decreased revenue and why. The dashboard also pulls in competitive industry data from Vertical IQ so you can see how your business is performing vs. competitors in your industry.
I’ve written an article that lists 10 Steps to Create a Blueprint for Growth. This is the perfect time to do this planning for the rest of the year. Click here to get the article.






